Case-Based Reasoning
Online Consistency of the Nearest Neighbor Rule
In the realizable online setting, a learner is tasked with making predictions for a stream of instances, where the correct answer is revealed after each prediction. A learning rule is online consistent if its mistake rate eventually vanishes. The nearest neighbor rule is fundamental prediction strategy, but it is only known to be consistent under strong statistical or geometric assumptions: the instances come i.i.d. or the label classes are well-separated. We prove online consistency for all measurable functions in doubling metric spaces under the mild assumption that instances are generated by a process that is uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to an underlying finite, upper doubling measure.
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Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
Allison, David M., Herzog, Stephen
A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a critical juncture for decision makers. This article lays out the contours of an overlooked but intensifying technological arms race for nuclear (in)visibility, driven by the interplay between proliferation-enabling technologies (PETs) and detection-enhancing technologies (DETs). We argue that the strategic pattern of proliferation will be increasingly shaped by the innovation pace in these domains. Artificial intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented complexity to this equation, as its rapid scaling and knowledge substitution capabilities accelerate PET development and challenge traditional monitoring and verification methods. To analyze this dynamic, we develop a formal model centered on a Relative Advantage Index (RAI), quantifying the shifting balance between PETs and DETs. Our model explores how asymmetric technological advancement, particularly logistic AI-driven PET growth versus stepwise DET improvements, expands the band of uncertainty surrounding proliferation detectability. Through replicable scenario-based simulations, we evaluate the impact of varying PET growth rates and DET investment strategies on cumulative nuclear breakout risk. We identify a strategic fork ahead, where detection may no longer suffice without broader PET governance. Governments and international organizations should accordingly invest in policies and tools agile enough to keep pace with tomorrow's technology.
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Formal Abductive Latent Explanations for Prototype-Based Networks
Soria, Jules, Chihani, Zakaria, Girard-Satabin, Julien, Grastien, Alban, Xu-Darme, Romain, Cancila, Daniela
Case-based reasoning networks are machine-learning models that make predictions based on similarity between the input and prototypical parts of training samples, called prototypes. Such models are able to explain each decision by pointing to the prototypes that contributed the most to the final outcome. As the explanation is a core part of the prediction, they are often qualified as ``interpretable by design". While promising, we show that such explanations are sometimes misleading, which hampers their usefulness in safety-critical contexts. In particular, several instances may lead to different predictions and yet have the same explanation. Drawing inspiration from the field of formal eXplainable AI (FXAI), we propose Abductive Latent Explanations (ALEs), a formalism to express sufficient conditions on the intermediate (latent) representation of the instance that imply the prediction. Our approach combines the inherent interpretability of case-based reasoning models and the guarantees provided by formal XAI. We propose a solver-free and scalable algorithm for generating ALEs based on three distinct paradigms, compare them, and present the feasibility of our approach on diverse datasets for both standard and fine-grained image classification. The associated code can be found at https://github.com/julsoria/ale
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Online Consistency of the Nearest Neighbor Rule
In the realizable online setting, a learner is tasked with making predictions for a stream of instances, where the correct answer is revealed after each prediction. A learning rule is online consistent if its mistake rate eventually vanishes. The nearest neighbor rule (Fix and Hodges, 1951) is a fundamental prediction strategy, but it is only known to be consistent under strong statistical or geometric assumptions--the instances come i.i.d. or the label classes are well-separated. We prove online consistency for all measurable functions in doubling metric spaces under the mild assumption that the instances are generated by a process that is uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to a finite, upper doubling measure.
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